What happened Wednesday and what will happen Thursday:
Today I spent most of the day in Finland. Cara drove me around and we checked two sites while Raimo checked the third one. Thank you guys!!! The result: Finland is out. Even though sailing was possible until Tuesday it is no longer. It got too warm in Finland, just unbelievable! The icethickness there still is between 30 and 40 cm with 20 cm snowice on top of 20 cm hardice. But the snowice got too soft to sail on. Even angle runners wouldn’t work but skis might do the Job.
I continued in the afternoon to Estonia and arrived a few moments ago in Tartu where I am going to check Lake Vörtsjärv with Alari Akermann right after sunrise. Then I will be heading for Sweden again to check Lake Dellen before darkness Thursdayafternoon.
Now there are basically two main Sites left Sweden/Lake Dellen near Hudigsvall and Estonia/Lake Vörtsjärv near Tartu and Lake Rekyva near Siaulia as a backup. Ueli, Matthieu and Jean Pierre are checking Lake Rekyva Thursdaymorning.
Here is the current outlook:
At Lake Dellen Today’s forcast for Sunday and Monday is either rain or more likely snow (Total rain forecast = 11mm!). From Today’s perspective there will be no sailing likely on Monday and neither on Tuesday. The windforcast is between 1 m/s and 2m/s. From Wednesdayafternoon on it is supposed to get colder there and the wind shall build up to 3-4 m/s for the rest of the week (Thursday and Friday until last possible start at 14:00pm. The only question is how will the surface be look like and if the wind is enough to run e.g. the qualifiers!? Well we don’t know.
At Lake Vörtsjärv the temperatures are slightly higher. The ice that I will see soon appears as hard ice of 30cm thickness. Such an ice can last up to a week even in plus degrees. There is -2 right now and will be the following night. Then night temperatures will be between 0 and 2 and the day temperatures between 3 and 5 degrees. From Wednesday on it will get colder there as well. The windspeed is supposed to be 6 m/s Monday and Tuesday and then 5 m/s Wednesday. Thursday no wind and light wind around Friday noon. Now please think of running qualifiers again. We could have more than 10 races in by Wednesday per fleet.
By taking an early decision we can ruin it either way. I suggest at this point to wait until Friday morning. I have seen only pictures and a video of the Ice at Lake Vörtsjärv and like to measure it too. If Lake Vörtsjärv turns out like it looks and the forecast will remain like at is my opinion is that we’ll be better off in Estonia. I will not have seen Lake Dellen until Thursday afternoon. With this forecast I not necessarily would have to go there but of course I will because forecasts change and I don’t know yet what Vörtsjärv will be really like until in about 6 hours from now.
Iceboaters, I know you have the professional view to understand that an early decision can ruin this event. It doesn’t help us if we can sail until Sunday around lunchtime and then not for the next days when it counts. Imagine we would not be able to sail two days and then due to the snow and light winds get the qualifiers not done on Wednesday and perhaps not even in the days after.
I wish predictions would be more stable and favoring one spot for sure. This is not the case, at least not at this moment but perhaps later today. I will keep you posted as usual here. Thank you very much for your understanding and Support.
Keep on thinking: Ice !